WHAT is Going On in our Nation??? National Policy Impacting your business...Here's what we know (with some AI support):

CCDBG (Funds CCCAP - Child Care Assistance Program):

CCDBG supports 1.4 million children’s childcare

$8.75B, FY2024

$7.350B FY2023

With the 2024 NEW CCDF (child care development fund) regulations, Colorado alone would need another $70 Million from the federal government to meet the requirements.

Child Tax Credit:

The federal Child Tax Credit (CTC) faces changes as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025. Current CTC is $2,000 per child under 17, with $1,700 refundable. Proposals include:

• House GOP: Raise CTC to $2,500 through 2028, then $2,000; cap refund at $1,400. Benefits middle/higher-income families more.
• Wyden-Smith (Bipartisan): Increase refundable cap to $2,000 by 2025, remove cap, add lookback provision. Helps 16M kids, lifts 400,000 from poverty.
• Democrats: Restore 2021 expansion ($3,000–$3,600/child, fully refundable, monthly payments) or tiered CTC ($3,600–$6,360 by age). Cuts poverty significantly.
• Others: GOP Sens. Britt ($4,000 care credit) and Hawley ($5,000 CTC).

Debates focus on refundability, earnings thresholds, and costs ($693B for TCJA extension). Without action, CTC drops to $1,000 in 2026, hitting 40M families.

Federal Department of Education:

Trump’s Executive Order (March 2025): Directs DOE closure, shifts education to states, ends DEI programs. Needs congressional approval.

Legislation:

• Sen. Mike Rounds: “Returning Education to Our States” bill transfers Title I, IDEA to other agencies, gives states block grants.
• Rep. Thomas Massie’s H.R. 899: Abolishes DOE by mid-2026, minimal program transfers.
• Feb 2025 House Bill: Seeks DOE elimination by 2026, lacks broad support.

Actions: DOE staff cut from 4,133 to 2,183; further reductions in litigation.

DOE Role:

• Manages $238B for Title I ($18B, 26M students),
• IDEA ($34B, 7.5M students),
• Pell Grants, $1.6T student loans;
• enforces civil rights.

Impacts:

• Pros: Reduces federal “overreach,” empowers states, cuts bureaucracy.
• Cons: Risks funding chaos, weakens civil rights, hurts low-income/disabled students, strains state budgets.

Hurdles: Needs 60 Senate votes (unlikely with 53 GOP); 60% of Americans oppose per March 2025 poll. Legal challenges loom.

Outlook (per Grok 3): Full elimination unlikely; partial dismantling possible.

Head Start:

Trump’s Budget Plan: A draft FY2026 budget proposes eliminating all funding for Head Start, a $12B program serving ~800,000 low-income children with early education, health, and nutrition services. Since then, statements have been made that the program will not be eliminated.

Actions: Since January 2025, the Trump administration froze Head Start funds (later reversed), cut ~10,000 HHS jobs (including 30–45% of ACF staff managing Head Start), and closed five of ten regional offices, disrupting support for 22 states.

• Congressional Response: Congress, which controls funding, passed a March 2025 bill cutting Head Start by $750M, despite a Senate proposal to increase it by $700M. Elimination requires congressional approval, unlikely due to bipartisan support.

Impacts:

• Families: Loss of childcare for ~800,000 kids, forcing parents to quit jobs or pay unaffordable costs ($11,582/year average). Harms rural areas most, where Head Start is 22–40% of childcare.
• Equity: Disproportionately affects Black/Latino (67% of participants) and disabled children, worsening poverty and educational gaps.
• Economy: Cuts could reduce workforce participation, costing billions. Head Start yields $10 societal return per $1 invested.

In the end, the Federal Government is working to decrease the overall infrastructure of the Government. Civilian workforce in the federal government over the past 20 years has decreased by .3 million however contract workforce has increased significantly, with about $759 Billion in contracts (2023), employing millions indirectly.

Our national debt:

• 2005: $7.9 trillion (60% of GDP).
• 2025: $36 trillion (126% of GDP), doubled from $18T in 2015. CBO projects 116% of GDP by 2034.
• Growth: 356% nominal increase, driven by deficits (e.g., $1.8T in 2024, up 8% from 2023). Spending outpaced revenue (taxes up 60% to $4.9T, spending up 98% to $7T, 2015–2025)

Growth Trends (2005–2025)

• Spending: Tripled nominally, outpacing inflation and GDP growth. Share of GDP rose from ~20% to ~27% (2020s).
• Employment: Core civilian workforce stable, but contractor growth expanded “true size” significantly.
• Debt: Quadrupled, with debt-to-GDP ratio doubling, reflecting unchecked deficits.
• Regulations: Expanded until recent repeals, though compliance costs remain high.

• Key Drivers: Post-2008 stimulus, COVID-19 spending, entitlement growth (Medicare, Social Security), and defense. Wars, recessions, and ideological shifts (e.g., Progressive Era, New Deal legacies) entrenched larger government

With less federal government overhead and policy oversight, states will gain more flexibility for their programs to serve their communities as long as they align with national interests. Colorado is pushing hard to not align with those national interests. The Co State legislators provided $4 million in state funds to fight federal expectations. You may think that is good, you may think that is bad. We are just doing our best to take away the noise and present what is happening...so that YOU can decide! We just wonder...if you can't run your household on a fiscal deficit, how can the government be allowed to do so?

Here's Colorado, when it comes to Federal job losses: